AI Study Reveals Who Is Most Likely to Become a Space Tourist

A new scientific study suggests that the dream of traveling to space is no longer purely speculative. Using explainable artificial intelligence, researchers have identified the key factors that determine who is most likely to become a space tourist — with ticket price emerging as the single most decisive variable.

The study, published in the journal Acta Astronautica, for January 2026 was conducted by Tan-Hanh Pham, Jingchen Bi, Rodrigo Mesa-Arango, and Kim-Doang Nguyen. The research introduces an artificial intelligence model called SpaceNet, designed not only to predict demand for space tourism but also to explain why individuals are willing — or unwilling — to take part.

“SpaceNet allows us to move beyond simple prediction and understand the reasoning behind people’s decisions,” said Tan-Hanh Pham, the study’s lead author. “This kind of transparency is essential for an emerging industry like space tourism.”

The Factors Makes People Wants to be Space Tourist

The researchers analyzed survey data from more than 1,800 respondents in the United States, capturing demographic characteristics, income levels, age, gender, and individual tolerance for risk. Participants were asked to express their preferences across multiple travel options, including no space travel, suborbital flights, orbital missions, and potential journeys to the Moon.

The results show that higher ticket prices sharply reduce demand, particularly for orbital and lunar travel, which respondents perceive as more dangerous. Younger individuals and those with higher annual incomes were significantly more likely to express interest in space travel, according to the study.

Using advanced machine-learning techniques, the SpaceNet model achieved a strong predictive performance, with an average ROC–AUC score of approximately 0.82. This indicates a high level of accuracy in distinguishing between individuals likely to pursue space tourism and those who are not.

Unlike traditional “black-box” AI systems, SpaceNet incorporates explainable AI techniques, allowing researchers to identify how each variable contributes to the final prediction. The model relies on Shapley-based explanations to assess the influence of price, age, gender, income, and perceived fatality risk on decision-making.

“Economic considerations are important, but psychological factors play a critical role as well,” said Jingchen Bi, a co-author of the study. “Perceived risk, especially the fear of fatal accidents, significantly suppresses demand, even among higher-income groups.”

The researchers found that risk perception becomes increasingly influential as the complexity and duration of space travel increase. While suborbital trips attract relatively broader interest, enthusiasm declines markedly for orbital missions and proposed lunar journeys.

The study follows guidelines for trustworthy artificial intelligence, emphasizing transparency, reliability, and accountability. The authors argue that these principles are essential as AI-driven models begin to inform high-stakes business decisions in industries worth billions of dollars.

As commercial spaceflight companies continue to develop tourism offerings, the findings provide early insight into the likely shape of the market. Initial demand, the researchers conclude, will likely come from a narrow demographic: younger, wealthier individuals with higher tolerance for risk.

Ultimately, the study suggests that the future of space tourism will be shaped not only by rocket technology and engineering breakthroughs, but also by how effectively companies understand human behavior — and how clearly artificial intelligence can explain it. (Sulung Prasetyo)

Read also: