A Hotter Planet Is Bringing Bigger Risks to Europe’s Forests

Climate change is projected to significantly increase disturbances in forests across Europe throughout the 21st century, driven by rising risks of wildfires, storms, and insect outbreaks. Scientists warn that even under relatively moderate warming scenarios, Europe’s forests will face growing ecological pressure that could weaken their ability to store carbon and stabilize regional ecosystems.

The findings come from an international research team analyzing long-term climate projections and forest dynamics across the continent. Their study suggests that the combined effects of warming temperatures and more frequent extreme weather events will increase the scale and frequency of forest damage in the coming decades.

Researchers say the trend could reshape forest ecosystems in Europe and alter their role in regulating the global climate system.

Why Forest Disturbances in Europe Are Expected to Rise

Forests naturally experience disturbances such as storms, fires, and insect outbreaks. These events are part of normal ecological processes that help forests regenerate and maintain biodiversity.

However, climate change is expected to intensify these disturbances and make them occur more often. Warmer temperatures can accelerate insect reproduction cycles, weaken tree defenses, and create drier conditions that make forests more vulnerable to wildfire.

In recent decades, Europe has already experienced several large-scale disturbances, including severe storms and widespread outbreaks of bark beetles that have killed millions of trees. Scientists say these events may become more common as global temperatures continue to rise.

Under a scenario where global warming is limited to around 2°C, the study estimates that the area of forest disturbed each year could increase from roughly 180,000 hectares to about 216,000 hectares annually by the end of the century.

In a high-emissions scenario, where fossil fuel use continues to grow and warming exceeds the targets of the Paris Agreement, the area of forest affected by disturbances could rise dramatically to around 370,000 hectares per year, nearly doubling current levels.

The research was published in the scientific journal Science on March 5, 2026, under the title “Climate change will increase forest disturbances in Europe throughout the 21st century.”

The study used large-scale computer simulations to project how forest disturbances may evolve across Europe under different climate scenarios. By combining historical disturbance data with climate projections, the researchers were able to model the likely future of Europe’s forests through the end of the century.

The simulations included multiple disturbance drivers such as wildfires, storms, and insect outbreaks, allowing scientists to evaluate their combined effects on forest stability.

Implications for Carbon Storage

One of the most significant concerns raised by the study is the potential decline in forests’ ability to absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Forests play a crucial role in mitigating climate change by acting as natural carbon sinks. Through photosynthesis, trees absorb carbon dioxide and store it in their trunks, roots, and surrounding soil.

But when trees die due to disturbances such as fires or insect attacks, much of that stored carbon can be released back into the atmosphere.

“Huge efforts are currently underway to increase the carbon storage of European forests,” said Christopher Reyer, a scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and one of the study’s authors.

“If forests store less carbon in the future, other sectors will have to reduce their emissions even more,” Reyer said.

This shift could weaken one of Europe’s most important natural climate defenses and increase pressure on governments to cut greenhouse gas emissions elsewhere.

The research also shows that the effects of climate change on forests will vary across different regions of Europe.

Southern and Western Europe are expected to experience the largest increase in forest disturbances. These regions are already facing hotter and drier conditions, which can increase the risk of drought stress and wildfire.

Meanwhile, Northern Europe is projected to experience smaller overall increases in disturbances. Even so, scientists warn that new “hotspots” of forest damage could still emerge in those areas as climate patterns shift.

The uneven regional impacts highlight the need for forest management strategies that are adapted to local environmental conditions.

Connection to Rising Global Wildfire Trends

The findings also align with broader global evidence that wildfires are becoming more intense as the planet warms.

A growing body of research suggests that hotter temperatures and prolonged drought conditions are extending fire seasons and increasing the likelihood of large-scale fires in many parts of the world.

This pattern was previously highlighted in an article published by Lingkar Bumi titled “A Hotter Planet Bigger Fires,” which explored how global warming is contributing to larger and more destructive wildfires worldwide.

That article explained that higher temperatures dry out vegetation and soils, creating conditions that allow fires to spread more rapidly and burn more intensely.

The new research published in Science reinforces that conclusion by showing how climate-driven disturbances—particularly wildfire—could reshape Europe’s forests over the coming decades.

Together, the studies suggest that large fires are not isolated disasters but part of a broader climate-driven pattern affecting ecosystems globally.

A New Challenge for Forest Management

Scientists say adapting forest management practices will be essential to reduce future risks.

Possible strategies include increasing tree species diversity, strengthening monitoring systems for forest disturbances, and improving post-disturbance recovery efforts.

More resilient forests may be better able to withstand storms, drought, and insect outbreaks.

Still, researchers emphasize that adaptation alone will not be enough. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions globally remains critical to preventing the most extreme climate scenarios.

Without stronger climate action, Europe’s forests—long considered one of the continent’s most important natural climate buffers—could undergo profound transformation by the end of the century.

The study underscores a growing reality, in a warming world, even ecosystems that have long helped stabilize the climate may themselves become increasingly vulnerable to its effects. (Sulung Prasetyo)