Climate Change Increased Fire Danger in Drakensberg Mountain

A new study published in Theoretical and Applied Climatology warns that wildfire danger is increasing across South Africa’s Drakensberg Mountains as climate conditions become warmer, drier, and windier.

The research, conducted by scientists from Rhodes University and other institutions, analyzed fire patterns and weather data between 2001 and 2022 in the uKhahlamba–Drakensberg Park (UDP), a UNESCO World Heritage Site in KwaZulu-Natal. The study shows that while overall fire frequency has fluctuated, the number of fires and burned areas during the dry winter months has risen significantly.

According to the findings, winter fire occurrences increased by about 51 events per decade, and burned areas expanded by more than 10,000 hectares per decade. The most severe increases were recorded in the central part of the park, particularly near Cathedral Peak, Cathkin Valley, and Giant’s Castle. In contrast, the southern Drakensberg showed a decline in fire activity.

The research team used the Lowveld Fire Danger Index (LFDI) to assess climate-related risks. Data from three weather stations—Royal Natal, Giant’s Castle, and Shaleburn—were analyzed to determine how temperature, humidity, rainfall, and wind changes contribute to rising fire danger.

At Royal Natal, the fire danger index increased significantly by nearly two units per decade. The site also recorded a sharp drop in relative humidity and an increase in wind speed. At Giant’s Castle and Shaleburn, the study found steady warming trends of 0.37°C and 0.84°C per decade, respectively, along with declining humidity.

Although rainfall changes were less consistent, the combined effects of heat, dryness, and wind were identified as the main drivers of higher fire danger. The report states that these factors are “strongly associated with the rising frequency and intensity of wildfires” in the Drakensberg region.

Fire Regions

The researchers divided the study area into three regions—northern, central, and southern Drakensberg—to compare patterns. The central region showed the strongest fire growth, with about 30 additional fires per decade during the June to August dry season. The northern region recorded minor decreases in fire activity, while the southern region experienced a modest rise in winter fires but a decline during autumn.

The study attributes most ignitions to human activity rather than natural causes. Lightning is rare during the dry season, making deliberate and accidental burns the primary sources of ignition. Fire management in the region is handled by Ezemvelo KwaZulu-Natal Wildlife (EKZNW), which conducts prescribed burns between February and October. However, officials report increasing cases of unauthorized burning and arson, particularly since 2018.

Annual reports from EKZNW confirm that burned areas have expanded in recent years. The researchers noted that while prescribed burning is intended to reduce the risk of uncontrolled fires, unplanned burns have grown in scale and frequency, often outpacing official fire management efforts.

The Drakensberg range is a vital ecological and hydrological zone for South Africa, supplying much of the country’s freshwater. The study warns that increased fire activity could harm soil stability, vegetation cover, and water quality, threatening downstream agriculture and communities.

“More frequent or intense wildfires could degrade the mountain’s role as a major water source,” S. Strydom, the researcher from Department of Geography, Rhodes University, South Africa states. “Fire also alters vegetation dynamics and could reduce biodiversity if burning becomes too frequent or severe.”

The authors recommend strengthening adaptive fire management strategies to address the rising threat. Suggested actions include improving fire danger modeling, monitoring ignition patterns, adjusting prescribed burn schedules, and increasing enforcement against illegal fires.

They also call for integrating climate projections into fire planning, as long-term warming and declining rainfall are expected to intensify fire risks in the coming decades.

“The data indicate that without intervention, the Drakensberg region may experience more frequent and severe fires,” Strydom concludes. “Effective management and community engagement will be critical to protect both the ecosystem and local livelihoods.”

The study, led by Dr. S. Strydom of Rhodes University, was received on July 10, 2025, accepted on September 15, 2025, and published online on October 17, 2025. It appears in the journal Theoretical and Applied Climatology under the title “Climate-related drivers of fire danger and activity in the Drakensberg Mountains, South Africa.” (Wage Erlangga)

Read also: